Mathematical sports betting is a comprehensive approach to betting based on outcome value and bank management strategy. Betting mathematics increases your chances of success but does not guarantee a profit. When choosing new casinos, one should not forget about the possibility of using this type of strategy. These types of tactics can be very helpful in generating high profits in the long run. In this article, we will explain what margin and value-bets are, as well as calculate the expected profit and the probability of a losing streak.
Math in sports betting: What you need to know
Strategies help to choose the right amount of bets and find value multipliers. With the help of mathematical analysis of sports bets, it is possible, with a certain degree of probability, to find such indicators: shots on target, the number of corners, the number of fouls, yellow and red cards, the ratio of chances realized, etc. The following are the most common mathematical soccer betting strategies:
- D’Alembert’s principle;
- Oscar Grind;
- Monte Carlo;
The bookmaker cannot accurately assess the likelihood of an outcome, although analysts take into account many gaming and non-gaming factors. When analyzing unpopular championships, bookmakers may not know several parameters, and some outcomes are underestimated. In this case, mathematical analysis can give the user a more complete picture of what is happening, which will help him make the right decision.
Expected value in sports betting and variance
The mathematical expectation of profit is the expected profit from a set of bets with the same probability of a particular event. Moreover, this parameter is calculated using the following formula:
N is the number of bets made, P is the probability according to your calculations, K is the coefficient, F is the size of the bet.
Variance is an uneven distribution of the value of the probability of an event about its mathematical expectation. For example, when a symmetrical coin is tossed, there is a 50% chance of getting heads or tails. In reality, a coin can fall on one of the sides several times in a row. With a lot of repetitions, the ratio of falling heads and tails will approach 50%.
With risky bankroll management, variance can lead to losses. However, the long-term perspective of earnings levels out the variance in some respects. The likelihood of possible damage is also calculated using a mathematical formula:
Ms=(1—1/K)^Nx100%, where N is the number of losses in the series.
For example, some professional players prefer to bet on favorites and choose events with odds of 1.25. The odds of success when betting on such events are 80%. But to win a substantial amount of money, you need to make a bet several times higher than the standard one. In practice, you can lose several times in a row, in which case you are likely to lose your entire bankroll. To prevent this from happening, use several strategies and always consider the likelihood of a bad streak.
Detailed overview of mathematical strategies
Mathematical strategy in betting is the rules for managing the game bank, formulated by the players of the bookmaker’s offices. Professional players recommend using several types of tactics at the same time. Below is a detailed overview of the four most “workers” strategies.
- Martingale strategy
Martingale strategy is a strategy of doubling the bet amount after each next loss. The first “run” will override previous failures and bring a profit equal to the amount of the first bet.
- Ladder strategy
A ladder is a special tactic in which the size of each next bet, if successful, is equal to the payment of the previous bet until the end of the cycle. In this way, you plan for potential profits.
- Oscar Grind’s strategy
The Oscar Grind strategy is a strategy where you keep your bet size when you lose and double it when you enter before the end of the cycle. The first bet is equal to the desired profit. After achieving the result, each cycle must be started over.
- Kelly criterion
Renowned scientist John Kelly in the mid-1950s created this tactic. The criterion helps to determine the optimal bet size for wise bankroll management. The player must independently determine the probability of the event — it turns out, in a way, a competition between the bookmaker and the user. In this case, the probability of winning is determined by the following formula:
Sum = (Coefficient*Predicted probability—1) / (Coefficient—1)
The math in betting really increases your chances of earning a regular and high income. However, when choosing tactics, one should not be limited to only one method — an integrated approach to the task is a guarantee of success. Use analysis tools along with mathematical formulas and then you will get the long-awaited result.